European mobility is at an inflection point. Air passenger volumes returned above their prepandemic peak in 2024, capacity is tightening across the largest hubs, and the regulatory framework, in particular the revised Trans-European Transport Network Regulation and the “Fit for 55” package—explicitly positions high-speed rail as a complement to, and partly a substitute for, short- and medium-haul aviation. Yet, the adoption of Air–Rail intermodal trips by European travellers remains modest compared with Asian benchmarks. This report distils the first wave of evidence produced by the TRAVEL Chair to clarify why, and to identify the levers the industry can actually pull.

Our diagnosis draws on two complementary sources. First, the French National Air Passenger Survey (ENPA) provides a clean sample of 8,293 international departures from Paris Charles de Gaulle between 2012 and 2024, allowing us to estimate the revealed determinants of modal choice. Second, a discrete-choice questionnaire deployed across six European markets—France, Italy, Spain, Germany, Austria and the United Kingdom—captures stated preferences, psychological drivers and the often-overlooked decision not to travel. Combining revealed behaviour, stated preferences and latent attitudinal constructs allows us to separate the operational, the perceptual and the demographic components of intermodal demand.